The Wily Filipino

Exit Polls vs "Reality."

Early yesterday afternoon I was jumping up and down after the 6 pm exit polls were published:

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AR 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49

Turns out it was far, far off.

But now the questions are coming in: 1.39 million new voters, and Kerry loses by 376,923 votes. Or how, in Wisconsin, there's an unexplained difference of 8%. Or as posted on Democratic Underground:

...on several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has EVoting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results.

In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their EVoting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error.

So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits

vs.

A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits.

While Mystery Pollster laid out his argument for taking exit polls with a grain of salt, one wonders whether this has anything to do with it.

Black Box Voting just filed 3,000 FOIA requests to see the internal computer logs.

Posted by the wily filipino at November 3, 2004 08:22 AM